Expected Hold

Definition

Expected hold is the percentage of the total money “dropped” (exchanged for chips) that a casino expects to keep as profit for a specific game or period. It is different from house edge because it is based on the cash buy-in rather than the total amount of money wagered.

In context

A Blackjack table has a house edge of 0.5%, but its expected hold is usually around 12% to 15%. This means that if players drop $10,000 into the box to buy chips, the casino expects to eventually win about $1,500 of that cash, because players will bet those chips multiple times before walking away or losing.

Why it matters

Expected hold is the “bottom line” metric for casino managers. While the house edge is a fixed mathematical theory, the hold is the actual realized profit. If a table’s actual hold is significantly lower than the “expected hold,” it signals that something is wrong—perhaps a dealer is making mistakes, a player is cheating, or the game is simply running “cold” (variance).

In detail

To understand the casino business, you must understand the difference between House Edge and Hold. This is where most beginners (and even some experienced players) get confused. Expected Hold is the metric that shift managers use to determine if their “pit” is performing correctly.

The Formula: Edge vs. Hold

The House Edge is what the casino wins on every single bet. If you bet $100 on a 1% edge game, the casino expects to make $1. The Expected Hold is what the casino wins on the buy-in.

Think of it this way: You walk up to a table with $100. You buy $100 in chips. You bet $10 per hand. If you play for an hour, you might make 60 bets. That means you have “cycled” $600 through the game. If the edge is 1%, the casino’s “theoretical win” is $6 ($600 x 0.01). However, if you walk away with $80, the casino “held” $20 of your original $100 buy-in. Their Hold Percentage for that session was 20%.

The “Expected Hold” is the average of these results over thousands of players. For Blackjack, the hold is typically 12-18%. For Roulette, it can be 20-25%.

Why Hold is Always Higher than Edge

Hold is almost always much higher than the house edge because of Volatility and Time. Most players don’t place one bet and leave. They sit down and play until they have either won a significant amount or lost their “buy-in.” Because the house edge works on every single spin or hand, the longer a player stays at the table, the more the house edge eats into their original $100. Eventually, the “mathematical drip” of the edge results in a much larger percentage of the cash being “held” by the box.

Factors that Influence Expected Hold

Game Speed: A faster game (like a “Continuous Shuffle” Blackjack table) allows more hands per hour. More hands means more “handle” (total bets), which leads to a higher hold.
Player Skill: In games like Blackjack or Video Poker, if players play poorly, the house edge increases. This naturally drives the expected hold higher.
Average Trip Time: If players typically stay for 2 hours, the hold will be higher than if they stay for 20 minutes.
Table Limits: High-limit tables often have lower hold percentages because the players are more disciplined and the games might be slower.

Using Expected Hold to Catch Cheats

In the count room, the shift manager looks at the “Hold Report.” If the expected hold for a Roulette table is 22%, but for the last month it has only been 5%, alarm bells go off. A low hold suggests:

Theft: Is a dealer stealing chips?
Collusion: Is the dealer overpaying a specific player?
Skill: Is a professional “advantage player” attacking the game?
Incompetence: Is the dealer consistently making payout errors?

Conversely, if the hold is way too high (e.g., 40% on a 20% game), it might mean players are getting “killed” by a run of bad luck, which could actually be bad for business in the long run because players will feel the game is “rigged” and won’t return.

The “No-Spin” Reality for Players

As a player, you should mostly ignore “Hold.” It’s a business metric for the house. Your concern should be the House Edge. A game can have a 30% hold (meaning people lose 30% of their cash on average) but still have a very low edge. The only reason the hold is high is that people play it for a long time. However, if you are a casino owner, the Expected Hold is everything. It tells you how much cash you need in the vault, how to staff your tables, and whether your “product” is making the money it’s supposed to make.