Estimate your theoretical casino loss before you play.
Use this calculator to estimate your expected loss based on your bet size, number of bets, and the house edge of the game. It does not predict what will happen in one session. It shows the long-term mathematical cost of your action.
Use this when you want to build a custom probability table. Probabilities should total 100%. Net result is the win or loss amount for one bet.
| Outcome name | Probability % | Net win/loss amount | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
Probability total
100.00%
Expected value per bet
-$0.68
Expected loss per bet
$0.68
Implied edge
2.70% house edge
Expected loss is the average amount a player is mathematically expected to lose over repeated bets. It is not a guarantee for one session. It is the long-term cost created by the house edge.
In plain English, expected loss tells you the price of putting money into action. The more you bet, and the more often you bet, the more the house edge has room to work.
Expected Loss = Average Bet × Number of Bets × House Edge
Average bet is your typical wager. Number of bets is how many decisions you make. House edge is the casino’s percentage advantage converted into a decimal. A 2.70% house edge is 0.027 in the calculation.
A player may buy in for $200 but wager thousands of dollars over a long session because the same chips are reused again and again. Expected loss is based on total action, not only starting bankroll.
This is why a small buy-in can still create a meaningful theoretical loss when the player makes many bets.
Expected loss is the mathematical average. Actual loss is what happens in real life. Variance can make short-term results much better or worse.
You can win in a negative expectation game. You can also lose much more than the expected amount. The calculator shows the long-term center of the math, not a promise about tonight.
Casinos often use theoretical loss to estimate player value, comps, reinvestment, and profitability.
Theoretical loss is usually calculated as Average Bet × Decisions × House Edge. A player who makes more decisions can be worth more to the casino even if the buy-in looks small.
Even a small house edge becomes meaningful when the player makes many bets. A 1% edge on $10,000 of total action is still $100 in expected loss.
Low edge is better than high edge, but it does not remove the cost of repeated betting.
This calculator is an educational tool. It does not make gambling safer, profitable, or predictable. Never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.
Expected loss is the average amount you are mathematically expected to lose over many repeated bets.
No. In one session, you can win, lose less, or lose much more. Expected loss is a long-term average.
Because the house edge applies to every bet you make, not just the money you bring to the casino.
House edge is the percentage advantage of the casino. Expected loss converts that percentage into a money amount.
Yes, but usually only in special situations such as advantage play, promotions, errors, or skill-based conditions. Most normal casino play has negative expected value.
Games with lower house edges, such as good-rule blackjack with basic strategy, baccarat banker, craps pass line, and European roulette, usually have lower expected loss than high-edge games like keno or some slot machines.