The short answer
The Don’t Pass bet has a house edge of 1.36%, giving you a slight mathematical advantage over the standard Pass Line.
The full calculation
The 1.36% edge is achieved by the casino “barring” the 12. If a 12 rolls on the Come-Out, the Pass Line loses, but the Don’t Pass simply pushes. $P(win ext{ on come-out}) = rac{3}{36} = 0.0833$ $P(loss ext{ on come-out}) = rac{8}{36} = 0.2222$ $P(push ext{ on come-out}) = rac{1}{36} = 0.0278$ Combined with the point resolution probabilities, the final win frequency is $47.93%$. $EV = (0.4793 imes 1) + (0.4929 imes -1) = -0.0136$ This gives the house an advantage of 1.36%.
What this means at the table
For every $100 you bet on the Don’t Pass, you expect to lose $1.36. If you are flat-betting $25 and play through 40 shooters in a session, your expected loss is just $13.60. You are essentially acting as the house; you will win small amounts frequently, and your only risk is a “hot” shooter who hits their point.
Common mistakes around this number
Players often think the Don’t Pass is “safer” once a point is established. While you are a 2-to-1 favorite to win when the point is 4 or 10, the 1.36% house edge is generated on the Come-Out roll where you are heavily disadvantaged. The biggest mistake is taking your Don’t Pass bet down after a point is set. The dealer will let you do this because you are surrendering a bet where you are the favorite. Never take a Don’t Pass bet down.
See also
Understand the baseline in Craps Dont Pass or see why the 7 is so powerful in Craps Probabilities.
In Detail
Don’t pass has one of the cleaner house-edge stories in craps: cheap, unpopular, and slightly better than the cheerful side of the line.
This page is about the long-term price of don’t pass. On the surface, that may sound like one small corner of craps, but in a real casino it touches the three things that decide whether a player survives the table: the written rule, the payout, and the way the bet feels when chips are already in action. Craps is dangerous for beginners because a bet can feel smart, social, or lucky while still being badly priced.
The math that matters: Two dice create 36 equally likely ordered combinations. The shape of the game comes from that grid: 7 has 6 combinations, 6 and 8 have 5 each, 5 and 9 have 4 each, 4 and 10 have 3 each, 3 and 11 have 2 each, and 2 and 12 have only 1 each. At about 1.36%, $10,000 of resolved flat-bet action has about $10,000\times0.0136=$136$ in theoretical loss. Expected value is the grown-up way to price a bet: $EV=\sum(P_i\times W_i)-\sum(P_j\times L_j)$. If the payout is smaller than the true probability deserves, the difference is the house edge.
What it means on the felt: The casino still likes the bet because the edge remains positive, and many players add worse action anyway. A player who understands this subject does not need to act like a robot. You can still enjoy the noise, the shooter, the stick calls, and the little rush when the dice leave the hand. The point is to know when you are paying for entertainment and when you are making a lower-cost decision.
Casino-floor truth: Craps is built to move. The table crew wants clear bets, fast decisions, and clean payouts. The layout also nudges attention toward action. The safest-looking move is not always the cheapest move, and the loudest bet is almost never the best one. Good craps play is not about predicting the next roll. It is about refusing to overpay for it.
The mistake to avoid: Do not celebrate loudly when it wins. Take the math, not the microphone. Also, never judge this topic by one lucky hit or one ugly loss. Short sessions are noisy. The math only shows its face over repeated decisions, which is exactly why casinos are patient and players are usually not.