The expected value of a hold is the average return from keeping a specific set of cards and drawing replacements for the others. It is the math behind every correct video poker decision. The best hold is not always the prettiest hand, the safest-looking hand, or the hand closest to a jackpot. It is the hold with the highest average return.
Quick Facts
- Every dealt hand has several possible holds.
- Each hold creates a different set of draw outcomes.
- The highest-EV hold is the correct mathematical play.
- The same cards can have different best holds in different games.
- Paytables change hold value.
- Kicker cards matter in some bonus games.
- Wild-card games change the entire hold logic.
Plain Talk
A video poker hand is not decided only by the five cards you first receive. It is decided by what you keep.
That is where many players lose value. They see a pair, a flush draw, or three shiny royal cards and choose based on feel. Expected value asks a colder question:
“What does this hold pay on average after every possible draw?”
The Wizard of Odds Video Poker Hand Analyzer exists because this is exactly the kind of problem computers handle better than intuition. A computer can list every possible draw after a hold and average the payouts. A player at the machine cannot do that in real time, so strategy charts compress the math into usable rules.
This page explains the concept. For complete game returns, read video poker expected value. For probability outcomes, read video poker odds.
How It Works
When you are dealt five cards, you may hold any combination from zero to five cards. Every choice changes the number of cards drawn and the possible results.
| Cards Held | Cards Drawn | Number of Possible Replacement Combos |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | Many full-hand combinations |
| 1 | 4 | Large draw tree |
| 2 | 3 | Smaller draw tree |
| 3 | 2 | More focused draw tree |
| 4 | 1 | Very focused draw |
| 5 | 0 | Made hand; no draw |
The exact count depends on the known cards and remaining deck. The concept does not change. Each possible draw has a payout. Multiply each result by its probability, add them up, and you get the expected value of that hold.
The best video poker strategy is really a ranking of holds by EV. A simple strategy chart gives players the order: royal draw above this, high pair above that, low pair above certain high cards, and so on. More advanced charts include penalty cards and paytable-specific exceptions.
Video Poker Hand Example
You are dealt:
A♠ K♠ Q♠ 9♣ 9♦
A beginner may see the pair of 9s and hold it because a pair is already something. Another player may see A-K-Q suited and chase the royal. Which play is correct?
The answer depends on the game and paytable. In many Jacks or Better strategy charts, three to a royal can rank above a low pair in certain cases, but the precise decision requires the specific strategy table. In Double Double Bonus, kicker and premium quad values can change decisions. In Deuces Wild, the whole structure changes because deuces are wild and high pairs are not the same kind of anchor.
The lesson is not “always chase royal.” The lesson is “rank the hold by EV.”
Possible holds:
| Hold | Why It Tempts Players | Main Issue |
|---|---|---|
| 9♣ 9♦ | Already a pair | Low pair has modest upside |
| A♠ K♠ Q♠ | Royal draw | More volatile but higher premium potential |
| A♠ K♠ Q♠ 9♣ | Four-card mess | The off-suit 9 usually weakens the draw |
| A♠ K♠ | Two high cards | Often worse than stronger structured draws |
Correct play is not emotional. It is the hold with the highest average return under the actual paytable.
From the Casino Side:
Casinos do not track every individual hold decision for ordinary player comp purposes. They do not need to. The machine’s theoretical return assumes a level of strategy, and the real-world hold will reflect the player pool.
A slot manager cares about the gap between theoretical return and actual hold. If casual players make many wrong holds, the actual casino win can exceed the theoretical edge listed by the game math. If skilled players dominate a full-pay bank, actual hold may be tighter.
Surveillance and game protection may care about unusual behavior, but normal strategy play is not suspicious. Skilled players using a chart or practicing correct holds are part of the video poker ecosystem. The bigger operational concerns are machine configuration, approved paytables, progressive meter accuracy, disputes, and jackpot verification.
Gaming-device standards such as GLI-11 focus on device behavior, RNG requirements, meters, errors, and integrity. They do not make a bad hold good or a good hold guaranteed.
Common Mistakes
- Holding a low pair when a stronger draw has higher EV.
- Holding “almost useful” kickers that weaken the draw.
- Chasing every royal draw without knowing the paytable.
- Keeping four cards because discarding feels scary.
- Using one strategy chart for all video poker games.
- Ignoring penalty cards in close decisions.
- Thinking the correct hold must win the current hand.
Hard Truth
A bad hold can feel disciplined because you kept a made hand. The machine still charges you for the math you threw away.
FAQ
What is a hold in video poker?
A hold is the set of cards you keep after the deal before drawing replacements.
Is the best hold always obvious?
No. Many hands are close, and some correct plays feel wrong to casual players.
Does the paytable change the best hold?
Yes. If a full house, flush, straight, quad, or royal pays differently, the value of draws toward those hands can change.
Why do strategy charts rank holds?
Because each hold has an expected value. The chart lists the higher-value choices above lower-value choices.
Can the correct hold lose?
Yes. Correct strategy improves average return, not the next draw result.
Do wild cards change everything?
They change a lot. Deuces Wild, Joker Poker, and bonus variants do not use the same priorities as plain Jacks or Better.
Should I use an analyzer?
For learning, yes. At the machine, know the casino’s device/phone rules and do not slow the game or violate posted policies.
Deeper Insight
The expected value of a hold is where video poker becomes a skill game with casino math attached. It is also where overconfidence becomes expensive.
Players often memorize one or two flashy rules: always hold a high pair, always chase a royal, never break a made hand. The real strategy is more layered. It asks:
- What game am I playing?
- What is the paytable?
- What hands are rewarded heavily?
- What cards are already gone?
- What replacement cards can complete valuable hands?
- Is a kicker valuable in this variant?
- Does the max-coin royal bonus affect the decision?
The 9/6 Jacks or Better optimal strategy is a good example of how detailed these rankings can become. Even a simpler strategy can have a known cost. Wizard of Odds notes that a simple 9/6 Jacks or Better strategy returns slightly less than full optimal play. That small-looking gap is real money over enough coin-in.
Formula / Calculation
Expected value of a hold:
EV of Hold = Sum of each possible draw outcome probability × payoutIf a hold can lead to several result categories:
EV = (P1 × Pay1) + (P2 × Pay2) + (P3 × Pay3) + ... + (Pn × Payn)Comparing two holds:
Best Hold = Hold with the highest EVExample concept:
Hold A EV = 1.42 credits
Hold B EV = 1.36 credits
Hold C EV = 0.91 credits
Correct Hold = Hold AThat does not mean Hold A wins this hand. It means Hold A is worth the most on average.
Formula Explanation in Plain English
Imagine every possible draw after your hold was played out. Some draws lose. Some return your bet. Some make a pair, straight, flush, full house, quad, or royal. Expected value averages all of those outcomes using the paytable.
If one hold averages 1.42 credits and another averages 1.36 credits, the first hold is better even if the second one looks safer. Video poker strategy is built from thousands of these comparisons.
The dangerous part is that the difference may be invisible in one session. You can make the weaker hold and win. You can make the stronger hold and lose. Over enough hands, the repeated weaker choices become a hidden tax.
Related Reading
Use the video poker analyzer when learning how different holds compare. For the bigger picture, read video poker RTP, video poker house edge, and video poker strategy charts explained. If you are still learning the basic flow, go back to how to play video poker. For cost control, combine this page with the expected loss calculator and bankroll risk calculator.