The short answer
Expected Value (EV) is the theoretical amount you will win or lose on a bet over the long run. For a standard 9-6 Jacks or Better machine, the EV is 99.54%, meaning for every $100 you wager, your “cost to play” is $0.46.
The full calculation
The EV of a video poker hand is the sum of the probability of every possible outcome multiplied by the payout of that outcome.
The formula is: $$EV = \sum_{i=1}^{n} (P_i imes V_i)$$
Where:
- $P_i$ is the probability of a specific hand (e.g., Flush).
- $V_i$ is the payout value for that hand.
For example, in 9-6 JoB, the probability of a Royal Flush is roughly 0.000025. With a 5-coin bet paying 4,000, its contribution to total EV is: $$0.000025 imes 4000 = 0.10 ext{ (or 10% of the total return)}$$
What this means at the table
If you play 600 hands per hour at $1.25 per hand (quarter machine, max bet), you are wagering $750 per hour.
- On a 9-6 machine (99.54% EV), your expected hourly loss is $3.45.
- On an 8-5 machine (97.30% EV), your expected hourly loss jumps to $20.25. Math is the difference between a cheap afternoon of entertainment and a very expensive mistake.
Common mistakes around this number
Players often confuse EV with “Expected Win.” EV is a long-term average, not a guarantee for your current session. You can play a 100% EV game and still lose your entire bankroll in two hours because you didn’t hit the high-value hands (like a Royal Flush) that make up a large chunk of that percentage. This is called “Volatility,” and EV does not account for it.
See also
- [/video-poker/9-6-jacks-or-better/](9-6 Jacks or Better)
- [/video-poker/common-mistakes/](Common Mistakes)
- [/video-poker/8-5-jacks-or-better/](8-5 Jacks or Better)